Exit Survey Analysis - June 2019

Half-Year Results

It is estimated in January to June 327,000 visitors came to Jersey, 11% up, which generated spending of £111m, 12% up. Looking forward, with Brexit dominating the UK and slowing economic growth, there are downside risks. That said, we anticipate the full year visitor numbers and spend to broadly be in line with our forecast of 740,00 visits and spending of £274m.

Exit Survey

June

  • 81,300 visits generated 317,500 visitor nights, 5% down and unchanged on June of 2018

Quarter 2 April to June

  • Visits 6% up and visitor nights 7% up
  • Visitors spent £84.9m, 13% more in nominal terms than in Q2 of 2018
  • Average nightly spend of £107 (first half of 2019 £104), representing a nominal growth in spend per night of 5%

Year to date Jan to June

  • 327,000 visits generated 1.07m visitor nights
  • Average length of stay (staying at least one night) was 3.9, down from 4.1 in the first half of 2018
  • Year-on-year change across the first half of 2019 is 11% growth in visits and 7% growth in visitor nights
  • Spend per visit of £366 (first half of 2019 £340), representing a nominal growth in spend per visit of 2%
  • First six months of 2019 spending of £111m, 12% above the same stage of last year

Rolling 12 months

  • Visitor spend at June 2019 was £280.6m, 15% ahead of the previous year
  • Visits of 757,000 and visitor nights at 2.79m, representing increases of 10% and 4% respectively
     

Journey purpose

The number of ‘Holiday’ visits to Jersey during June was unchanged when we include both overnight and day-trip visits, but witnessed a marginal 1% annual increase when just focussing on overnight visits, as day-trip visits that the respondent described as a ‘Holiday’ fell 3%. In Q2 overall Holiday visits were 7% up but overnight visits jumped 10% with day-trip Holiday visits declining by 12%.  So far in 2019 almost 202,000 Holiday visits took place, of which 180,000 lasted at least one night.  This means that there has been a 13% increase in Holiday visits in the first half of the year, with this figure improving to 17% when focussing just on overnight Holiday visits. Holidays account for the bulk of visits to Jersey, but during the first half of the year there was differing performances across other journey purpose categories with Business visits declining 5% but visits to friends and relatives up 15% and ‘Other’ types of trip up 8%.

Source markets

So far in 2019 two-thirds of all visits have been by residents of the UK, 16% from France and 10% from Guernsey.  The UK and Germany are both up 15%, Ireland up 23% and Guernsey up 48%.  However due to a poor Q2 and in particular, June, the visits from France is 18% lower than in the first half of last year.

Mode of travel

Almost three-quarters of all visits during the first six months were on a scheduled flight, up from two-thirds for the same period of 2018. The reason for this is that in the period January to June the number of visits by scheduled flight is estimated to be 23% up on last year whereas visits by scheduled ferry are 16% down.  Cruise passengers has seen a 26% drop in the first half of the year, but there is a strong prospect of improvement during the remainder of the season.

Length of stay

In the first half of the year 16% of visits have been day-trips, 45% trips that last 1-3 nights, 24% lasting 4-6 nights, 11% an exact week and the remaining 4% 8 or more nights. Day-trip visits overall have seen a 1% fall, and similarly at the other end of the spectrum visits lasting 8 or more nights have fallen 3%. All other length of stay categories are up, but not by a uniform amount, with trips of 4-6 and 7 night duration increasing by 5% while mirroring the global trend short-break stays are seeing the strongest growth, with a jump of 23% so far in 2019.

In the first half of the year the typical overnight Holiday lasted 4.0 nights, down from 4.3 nights a year earlier.

First time versus repeat visits

Looking across all types of journey purpose 40% of those travelling to Jersey during the first half of the year were encountering the island for the first time, but when looking solely at visits that were for a Holiday the proportion stood at 50%, not markedly different from the situation at the same stage of 2018.

Net Promoter Score

In the three months to June the NPS stood at 61, up from 52 in the same quarter of 2018.

Detailed volume data

The table below presents a range of metrics for June 2019, the past three months, the year-to-date and for the most recent rolling twelve months.  As is always the case, the longer the time period reviewed the more reliable are the estimates. 

June 2019 Data